Post by A's on Oct 14, 2011 10:03:54 GMT -5
Good article at www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/final-pitcher-era-siera-differential-the-potentially-overvalued/
Matt Cain
There he is, the list’s resident apparent lucky pitcher, who appears here on an annual basis ... Cain looks eerily similar to (Jered) Weaver in that both are fly ball pitchers (or at least were, as Cain has finally induced more grounders than flys), display good control and typically post strikeout rates in the 7.0-8.0 range. They are even well below average in the same two luck metrics, BABIP and HR/FB ratio. Cain has been doing it about a season longer than Weaver and has outperformed his SIERA literally every season of his seven years with the Giants, six of those being full seasons. Obviously, this should no longer be considered luck, though some seasons he does get lucky and his already good HR/FB suppressing ability becomes crazy, like this year’s 3.7%. Amazingly, this is one the second season Cain’s SIERA has been below even 4.00, and the career best FB% led to his lowest SIERA mark ever. I still will probably never draft him, but he looks as safe as ever.
Matt Cain
There he is, the list’s resident apparent lucky pitcher, who appears here on an annual basis ... Cain looks eerily similar to (Jered) Weaver in that both are fly ball pitchers (or at least were, as Cain has finally induced more grounders than flys), display good control and typically post strikeout rates in the 7.0-8.0 range. They are even well below average in the same two luck metrics, BABIP and HR/FB ratio. Cain has been doing it about a season longer than Weaver and has outperformed his SIERA literally every season of his seven years with the Giants, six of those being full seasons. Obviously, this should no longer be considered luck, though some seasons he does get lucky and his already good HR/FB suppressing ability becomes crazy, like this year’s 3.7%. Amazingly, this is one the second season Cain’s SIERA has been below even 4.00, and the career best FB% led to his lowest SIERA mark ever. I still will probably never draft him, but he looks as safe as ever.